Does al Qaeda Threaten the World Cup? Assessment, Context, and Implications for Understanding of the al Qaeda Network | Critical Threats

Does al Qaeda Threaten the World Cup? Assessment, Context, and Implications for Understanding of the al Qaeda Network | Critical Threats

Does al Qaeda Threaten the World Cup? Assessment, Context, and Implications for Understanding of the al Qaeda Network

By Charlie Szrom

June 7, 2010

(Green Point Stadium, Cape Town, South Africa, host of the opening match for the 2010 World Cup; photo by Blyzz, available at Flickr)

KEY POINTS

• On June 11, the 19th World Cup will begin with an opening match between Mexico and South Africa. It will be the first World Cup hosted in Africa, a fact worth celebrating, especially given African contributions to soccer in both fan base and star athletes.
• No al Qaeda franchise or major affiliate has made public threats against the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, despite reports to the contrary. The State Department has stated that “the U.S. Government has no information on any specific, credible threat of attack that any individual or group is planning to coincide with the tournament.” South African authorities have also said “there’s no specific terror threat to South Africa” and have taken preventive security measures.
• However, in several instances over the past eight months, individuals linked to al Qaeda have made threats against or potentially planned to target the World Cup or Western interests in South Africa.
• In response to such threats, the State Department issued a travel warning for the World Cup on May 25, a step it did not take prior to or during the 2002 or 2006 World Cups or the 2004 Olympics; the U.S. Embassy in South Africa closed briefly; and Dutch authorities banned travel to South Africa by families of Dutch players.
• The global visibility of the World Cup, Al Qaeda’s ideological opposition to secular institutions such as the Cup, the competitive desire by individuals or groups in the al Qaeda network to show strength relative to other members of the network, and potential security holes in South Africa, increase the odds, albeit somewhat limited, of an al Qaeda-linked strike at the World Cup.
• Al Qaeda’s ideological opposition to secular, international institutions such as the World Cup shows that neither it nor any of its units can exist within a modern international structure, as all non-Salafist, secular institutions threaten the violent Islamist network’s eventual goal of the establishment of a caliphate.
• The choice of the World Cup as a target by individual members of al Qaeda further evidences a trend over the past year wherein al Qaeda-linked individuals have increasingly sought high-profile, international targets instead of local targets. The mutual selection by several al Qaeda-linked individuals of the World Cup as an opportunity for such a success shows that the network shares some level of strategic vision, a characteristic that can increase the level of danger following high-profile incidents such as the Times Square attack.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION

2. BACKGROUND

3. DETAILS BEHIND INCIDENTS AND CONTEXT IN LINKED COUNTRIES

4. SECURITY RISKS IN SOUTH AFRICA

5. RESPONSE FROM SOUTH AFRICAN AUTHORITIES AND FIFA

6. CONCLUSION

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[1] The World Cup will commence on June 11 with the South Africa – Mexico match; see the full schedule here:http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/matches/index.html

[2] Makhudu Sefara and Peter Fabricius, “Plot to bomb US buildings, disrupt World Cup,” Cape Argus (South Africa), October 11, 2009, available: http://www.capeargus.co.za/?fSectionId=3571&fArticleId=vn20091011085002653C456708; “Minding the threat,” Cape Argus (South Africa), October 14, 2009, available via Lexis-Nexis.

[3] “Qaeda Group Threatens to Attack World Cup,” CBS News, April 7, 2010, available:http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20001940-503543.html.

[4] “Al-Qaeda man tells of chilling World Cup terror plot,” Daily News (South Africa), May 19, 2010, available via Lexis-Nexis.

[5] “Somalia: Al-Shabaab Denies Terror Plot Against World Cup Soccer Tournament,” Hiraan Online, February 9, 2010, available via World News Connection.

[6] Abdou Tajeddine, Naoufel Cherkaoui, Jamel Arfaoui, Mohamed Foily and Mohamed Ould Abdel Wedoud, “Maghreb football fans react to World Cup terror threat,” Magharebia, April 30, 2010, available:http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtml1/en_GB/features/awi/features/2010/04/30/feature-01; “Jihadist Magazine Article Contains Indirect Threat to World Cup”, Jihadist Websites – OSC Summary, April 8, 2010, available via World News Connection.

[7]“Al-Qaida in Iraq Denies World Cup Plot Allegations”, Associated Press, May 25, 2010, available:http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=10736432.

[8] “Travel Alert, Bureau of Consular Affairs: South Africa,” State Department, May 25, 2010, available:http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_3250.html.

[9] “U.S. Consulates In South Africa To Reopen September 25,” State Department, September 24, 2009, available at http://southafrica.usembassy.gov/wm_092409.html; Makhudu Sefara and Peter Fabricius, “Plot to bomb US buildings, disrupt World Cup,” Cape Argus (South Africa), October 11, 2009, available at:http://www.capeargus.co.za/?fSectionId=3571&fArticleId=vn20091011085002653C456708; “Minding the threat,” Cape Argus (South Africa), October 14, 2009, available via Lexis-Nexis.

[10] “Travel Alert, Bureau of Consular Affairs: South Africa,” State Department, May 25, 2010, available:http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_3250.html.

[11] “Dirk Kuyt reveals 'terror' over Al Qaeda World Cup plot,” Mirror Football, May 22, 2010, available:http://www.mirrorfootball.co.uk/news/Liverpool-star-Dirk-Kuyt-reveals-his-absolute-terror-at-being-told-of-Al-Qaeda-plot-to-attack-Holland-s-World-Cup-clash-with-Denmark-Exclusive-article434527.html; “Dirk Kuyt terrified over Al Qaeda plot,” The Soccer Room, May 22, 2010, available: http://thesoccerroom.com/?p=8702.

[12] “Dirk Kuyt reveals 'terror' over Al Qaeda World Cup plot,” Mirror Football, May 22, 2010, available:http://www.mirrorfootball.co.uk/news/Liverpool-star-Dirk-Kuyt-reveals-his-absolute-terror-at-being-told-of-Al-Qaeda-plot-to-attack-Holland-s-World-Cup-clash-with-Denmark-Exclusive-article434527.html; “Dirk Kuyt terrified over Al Qaeda plot,” The Soccer Room, May 22, 2010, available: http://thesoccerroom.com/?p=8702.

[13]“Security, costs slow World Cup ticket sales in Germany,” Reuters, January 19, 2010, available:http://af.reuters.com/article/sportsNews/idAFJOE60I0BQ20100119.

[14] “Fifa urges South Africa fans to buy World Cup tickets,” BBC, April 9, 2010, available:http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/world_cup_2010/8612734.stm

[15] Bin Laden interview with Taysir Alluni, al Jazeera journalist, in Bruce Lawrence, Messages to the World: The Statements of Osama bin Laden (London: Verso, 2005), 112.

[16] Al Ali may be best known for his fatwa issued prior to 9/11 in 2001 that said suicide operations were justified and “in modern time(s) this can be accomplished through the modern means of bombing, or by bringing down an airplane on an important site that causes the enemy great casualties.” Al Ali has moved beyond rhetoric, helping recruit and fund the travel of Kuwaitis who wanted to fight the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq. He also served as part of a cell in Kuwait that allegedly aimed to attack U.S. and Kuwaiti targets in January 2005, charges a Kuwaiti judge acquitted him of in December 2005.

Chris Heffelfinger, “Kuwaiti Cleric Hamid al-Ali: The Bridge Between Ideology and Action,” Jamestown Foundation, April 26, 2007, available at http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=4112; “QI.A.236.08. HAMID ABDALLAH AHMAD AL-ALI,” United Nations Al-Qaida and Taliban Sanctions Committee, April 6, 2009, available: http://www.un.org/sc/committees/1267/NSQI23608E.shtml; A Fatwa by Sheik Hamed al-Ali and Commentary from Amr Khaled Regarding the World Cup,”

SITE Intelligence Group, June 23, 2006.” Treasury Designations Target Terrorist Facilitators,” U.S. Treasury Department, December 7, 2006, available: http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp191.htm.

[17] A Fatwa by Sheik Hamed al-Ali and Commentary from Amr Khaled Regarding the World Cup,”

SITE Intelligence Group, June 23, 2006.

[18] A Fatwa by Sheik Hamed al-Ali and Commentary from Amr Khaled Regarding the World Cup,”

SITE Intelligence Group, June 23, 2006.

[19] “Kenya investigates Islamic group crackdown on soccer,” Reuters, April 30, 2010, available:http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE63T16D20100430.

[20] Makhudu Sefara and Peter Fabricius, “Plot to bomb US buildings, disrupt World Cup,” Cape Argus (South Africa), October 11, 2009, available at: http://www.capeargus.co.za/?fSectionId=3571&fArticleId=vn20091011085002653C456708

[21] Tom Savage, “Terrorists target the World Cup,” Daily Star, October 14, 2009, available:http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/103457/Terrorists-target-the-World-cup/

[22]Hassan Isilow, “Terrorists threaten to blow up SA,” Africa News, October 28, 2009, available:http://www.africanews.com/site/Terrorists_threaten_to_blow_up_SA/list_messages/27651; Jefrrey Gettleman and Eric Schmitt, “U.S. Kills Top Qaeda Militant in Southern Somalia,” New York Times, September 14, 2009, available: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/15/world/africa/15raid.html.

[23] “Al-Qaeda World Cup arrest follows South African professor’s warning,” Xinhua, May 17, 2010, available:http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-05/17/c_13299697.htm.

[24] See here for a comprehensive report on al Shabaab:http://www.criticalthreats.org/sites/default/files/pdf_upload/analysis/CTP_Terror_Threat_From_Somalia_Shabaab_Internationalization.pdf

[25] “Qaeda Group Threatens to Attack World Cup,” CBS News, April 7, 2010, available:http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20001940-503543.html.

[26] “Algeria Terrorists Sought To Take Russia Specialists Hostage,” ITAR-TASS, March 5, 2007, available at World News Connetion; “EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report,” Europol, 2008, available:http://www.europol.europa.eu/publications/EU_Terrorism_Situation_and_Trend_Report_TE-SAT/TESAT2008.pdf, 26.

[27] Souad Mehennet, Michael Moss, Eric Schmitt, Elaine Sciolino, and Margot Williams, “Ragtag Insurgency Gains a Lifeline From Al Qaeda,” New York Times, July 1, 2008, available:http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/01/world/africa/01algeria.html?_r=1.

[28] “Jihadist Magazine Article Contains Indirect Threat to World Cup”, Jihadist Websites – OSC Summary, April 8, 2010, available via World News Connection.

[29] Rebecca Santana and Laura Jakes, “In Iraq's bloodiest day of 2010, attacks kill 100,” Associated Press, May 10, 2010, available: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100510/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq.

[30] “SA Intelligence Investigating Terror Plot Claim,” SAPA, May 19, 2010, available at World News Connection.

[31] “Al-Qaida in Iraq Denies World Cup Plot Allegations”, Associated Press, May 25, 2010, available:http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=10736432.

[32] “Dirk Kuyt reveals 'terror' over Al Qaeda World Cup plot,” Mirror Football, May 22, 2010, available:http://www.mirrorfootball.co.uk/news/Liverpool-star-Dirk-Kuyt-reveals-his-absolute-terror-at-being-told-of-Al-Qaeda-plot-to-attack-Holland-s-World-Cup-clash-with-Denmark-Exclusive-article434527.html.

[33] “Al-Qaeda ‘planning World Cup terror,” Daily Telegraph, May 18, 2010, available via Lexis-Nexis; “Al-Qaeda man tells of chilling World Cup terror plot,” Daily News (South Africa), May 19, 2010, available via Lexis-Nexis.

[34] “Al-Qaeda ‘planning World Cup terror,” Daily Telegraph, May 18, 2010, available via Lexis-Nexis; “Al-Qaeda man tells of chilling World Cup terror plot,” Daily News (South Africa), May 19, 2010, available via Lexis-Nexis.

[35] “U.S.: 2 of Al Qaeda's Top Leaders Killed in Iraq,” CBS News, April 19, 2010, available:http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/04/19/world/main6410912.shtml.

[36] Steven Lee Myers, “Iraqi Insurgent Group Acknowledges Killing of Two Leaders,” New York Times, April 25, 2010, available: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/26/world/middleeast/26iraq.html.

[37]Walter Pincus, “CIA Chief: Iraq Not Main Front,” Washington Post, November 14, 2008, available: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/13/AR2008111303959.html

[38] Sharon LaFraniere, “Unwitting Wives Are Prey in South Africa Scandal,” New York Times, September 5, 2004, available: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/05/international/africa/05africa.html?pagewanted=print&position=

[39] Alexandra Zavis, “Militants' illegal passports are traced to South Africa,” Associated Press, July 28, 2004, available: http://legacy.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20040728/news_1n28safrica.html.

[40] Rana Jawad, “Disappeared Pakistani ‘terror’ suspect ‘held over London bombings',” The Citizen (South Africa), April 18, 2007, available: http://www.citizen.co.za/index/article.aspx?pDesc=36901,1,22; Anneli Botha, “Preparations for the 2010 FIFA World Cup: Vulnerability and Threat of Terrorism (WP),” Real Instituto Elcano, April 16, 2010, available:http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/wcm/connect/52bb24004223e5d19087f28b6be8b54b/WP14-2010_Botha_South_Africa_2010_FIFA_World_Cup_Threat_Terrorism.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=52bb24004223e5d19087f28b6be8b54b.

[41] “England’s football World Cup stars under Al-Qaeda threat,” ANI, January 24, 2010, available:http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/sports/englands-football-world-cup-stars-under-al-qaeda-threat_100308939.html.

[42] “Al-Qaeda World Cup arrest follows South African professor’s warning,” Xinhua, May 17, 2010, available:http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-05/17/c_13299697.htm.

[43] Abdulmutallab link: Alan Cowell, “Kenya Seeks to Deport Muslim Cleric to Jamaica,” New York Times, January 4, 2010, available: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/05/world/africa/05kenya.html; Shahzad tie: Dina Temple-Raston, “Jamaican Imam Said To Inspire Times Square Suspect,” National Public Radio, May 19, 2010, available: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126962091; 7/7 bombing tie: Chris Zambelis, “A Profile of Radical Jamaican-born Cleric Sheikh Abdullah al-Faisal al-Jamaikee,” Jamestown Foundation, March 1, 2010, available: http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=36091; Sam Knight, “7/7 hate preacher deported to Jamaica,” Times Online (London), May 25, 2007, available:http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1840776.ece.

[44] Chris Zambelis, “A Profile of Radical Jamaican-born Cleric Sheikh Abdullah al-Faisal al-Jamaikee,” Jamestown Foundation, March 1, 2010, available: http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=36091; “Jamaican cleric reportedly visited Swaziland to recruit Muslim extremists,” BBC Monitoring Africa – Political, January 26, 2010, available via Lexis-Nexis.

[45] Karyl Walker, “Al-Faisal welcome to attend mosque — Islamic Council,” Jamaica Observer, January 31, 2010, available: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Al-faisal--welcomed-31.

[46] Neil Mackay, “South Africa is 'low on the list' of Al-Qaeda: intelligence chief,” Sunday Herald, October 10, 2004, available via Lexis-Nexis.

[47] “Al-Qaeda World Cup arrest follows South African professor’s warning,” Xinhua, May 17, 2010, available:http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-05/17/c_13299697.htm.

[48] “Treasury Targets Al Qaida Facilitators in South Africa,” U.S. Treasury Department, January 26, 2007, available: http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp230.htm; Jonathan Schanzer, “Pretoria Unguarded,” The Weekly Standard, May 28, 2007, available:http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/013/677lkhfy.asp?pg=1.

[49] Andrew Holt, “South Africa in the War on Terror,” Jamestown Foundation, December 1, 2004, available:http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=27237; “Key al-Qaeda suspect arrested,” BBC News, July 30, 2004, available: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/3938133.stm.

[50] “SA is not the country for chancers—Zuma,” Eyewitness News (South Africa), May 22, 2010, available:http://www.eyewitnessnews.co.za/articleprog.aspx?id=40181.

[51] “No terror threat at World Cup: FIFA,” AFP, May 20, 2010, available:http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jU725dTraULKV66CYgO8TlufHwXQ

[52] “Dutch not surprised by suspect's claims,” Associated Press, May 19, 2010, available:http://soccernet.espn.go.com/world-cup/story/_/id/5200760/ce/us/dutch-taking-terror-threat-seriously&cc=5901?ver=us

[53] Gerald Imray, “South Africa promises a safe World Cup,” Associated Press, May 23, 2010, available:http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/37263141/ns/sports-soccer/.

[54] Gerald Imray, “South Africa promises a safe World Cup,” Associated Press, May 23, 2010, available:http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/37263141/ns/sports-soccer/.

[55] “RSA Police Investigating Alleged Al-Qa’ida Terrorist Plot Against World Cup,” AFP, May 17, 2010, available at World News Connection.

[56] “RSA: Article Fears Prophet Mohammad Cartoon Might Spark Protest During World Cup,” AFP, May 21, 2010, available at World News Connection.

[57] “South African newspaper apologises in Muhammad cartoon uproar,” News Statesman, May 31, 2010, available: http://www.newstatesman.com/newspapers/2010/05/muhammad-cartoon-newspaper; Celia Dugger, “South Africa: Paper Apologizes for Cartoon of Muhammad,” New York Times, May 28, 2010, available:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/29/world/africa/29briefs-cartoon.html.